Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer

Texas Population Projections Program

The Texas Population Projections Programs produces biennial projections of the population of the state and all counties in the state by age, sex and race/ethnicity. The projections are used extensively by public and private entities.

Every 2-3 years, the program also produces state and county level projections for every year from 2005 through 2040 for the following:

  • Household projections
  • Labor force
  • Enrollment in primary/secondary education
  • Enrollment in community colleges and universities

Population Projections Methodology

Population methodology utilized by the program include the following highlights:

  • A single year of age, two sexes, 4 racial/ethnic groups (Anglo, Black, Hispanic, and Other), cohort-component projection model.
  • Special populations, fertility rates, mortality rates, residual migration rates are among the variables incorporated into the model

For additional information on population projection methodology, please refer to a year-specific methodology below.

Projection Products

The links below direct you to our Table 1 and Table 2 projections. The Table 1 projections are 2000 population and projections of the population of Texas and counties in Texas by race/ethnicity for five year intervals 2005 through 2040. Population estimates and projections prepared by the Texas Population Estimates and Projections Programs include a summary of methodology. Please carefully review the entire summary prior to using the data.

The Table 2 projections are 2000 population and projections of the population of Texas and counties in Texas by single year of age, sex, and race/ethnicity for every year 2001 through 2040.

A CD is available for purchase for $100.00 that contains Table 1 and Table 2 data in its entirety. Please contact the Texas State Data Center to order this product or for more information.

2006 Population Projections

Summary of Trends in Texas State Data Center Population Projections
Methodology for Population Projections (HTML | PDF  PDF)

Table 1 - Race/Ethnicity by Migration Scenario for 2000-2040 in 5 year increments

Table 1 - Total Population by Migration Scenario for 2000-2040 in 1 year increments (zipped CSV file)

Table 2 - Race/Ethnicity by Migration Scenario by Age Group for 2000-2040 (zipped CSV files)

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Texas State Data Center and
Office of the State Demographer
Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research (IDSER)
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The University of Texas at San Antonio
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Last modified on Oct 19, 2006

 Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer